IndustryReported30 September 2026

An analyst thinks Game Pass will eat most of what Gears of War: E-Day could have earned

Alinea Analytics' Rhys Elliott estimates E-Day has taken about 120,000 Steam pre-orders worth over $7 million, and argues most of its Xbox revenue will be lost to day-one Game Pass access. It launches October 6.

Update — 30 September 2026

More of Alinea Analytics' reading of the same data has surfaced. Further write-ups of Rhys Elliott's report say fewer than 20,000 of the roughly 120,000 Steam figure came in the last six weeks, meaning the bulk of it was banked early, and that on current form Alinea considers one million Steam copies unlikely for E-Day at any point. The firm's comparison points, as reported, are a Call of Duty release at about 450,000 Steam copies pre-launch and Wardogs at roughly 567,000 at an equivalent stage with around three times E-Day's estimated revenue - while E-Day is said to be running at more than double Halo: Campaign Evolved. That partly settles the Halo benchmark this article previously left open: two further write-ups of the report name Halo: Campaign Evolved, against GameSpot's Halo Infinite, so the balance now favours Campaign Evolved without being conclusive. All of these remain Alinea's models. Microsoft and Valve have published nothing.

Gears of War: E-Day launches into Xbox Game Pass on day one, and one analyst thinks that decision costs Microsoft most of the money the game could have made on its own platform.

The estimate

Elliott also placed E-Day well ahead of a recent Halo release at a comparable point on Steam, though the two outlets carrying the comparison name different Halo games, so the specific benchmark is unclear.

The wider argument

The blunter part of Elliott's commentary is strategic: he characterises E-Day and Clockwork Revolution as "sacrificial lambs for hearts-and-minds, not economics," on the view that exclusivity no longer moves consoles. Microsoft conceded in 2023 that Game Pass releases cannibalise full-price sales, and new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has said the Game Pass bet "did not work out." Microsoft has begun windowing some releases as a result - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 is not scheduled to hit Game Pass until autumn 2027.

E-Day releases globally on October 6, with early access from October 1 for higher-tier pre-orders, on Xbox and PC. Elliott expects a PS5 port at some point, though none has been announced.

Why it matters

Xbox is visibly rethinking what goes into Game Pass on day one and what waits. E-Day is a flagship arriving on the old terms while the company talks about new ones, which makes how it performs a reference point either way.

Why it matters

Microsoft is openly reconsidering day-one Game Pass releases, so a flagship shipping on the old terms becomes the benchmark the new strategy gets argued against.